2024 Presidential Election Projection by Theo

293
245
4 in 5
Harris Win Probability
1 in 5
Trump Win Probability
Tie Probability: 9 in 1000

Projected Popular Vote

50.6%
46.3%
3.1%

Win Probability

Popular Vote

Electoral Vote

Georgia
TOSSUP
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 5 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 5 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.32%
48.93%
48.75%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 0.3 percentage point
Arizona
TOSSUP
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 5 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 5 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3.45%
48.38%
48.16%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 0.3 percentage point
Nevada
TOSSUP
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 6 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 4 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4.44%
48.18%
47.38%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 0.3 percentage point
North Carolina
TOSSUP
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 4 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 6 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.49%
48.32%
49.19%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 0.3 percentage point
Wisconsin
LEAN D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 6 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 4 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.80%
49.37%
47.83%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 0.3 percentage point
Pennsylvania
LEAN D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 7 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 3 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.96%
49.31%
47.73%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 0.3 percentage point
Michigan
LEAN D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 8 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 2 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.31%
50.17%
47.52%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 0.3 percentage point
Florida
LIKELY R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 1 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 9 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.34%
46.95%
50.70%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 0.3 percentage point
Texas
LIKELY R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 1 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 9 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.34%
46.33%
51.33%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 0.3 percentage point
Minnesota
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
52%
45%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Maine
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
6%
51%
43%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
New Hampshire
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4%
52%
44%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Ohio
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2%
45%
53%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Virginia
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
53%
44%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Iowa
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
44%
53%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
New Mexico
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
5%
53%
42%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
South Carolina
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
43%
54%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Alaska
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
5%
42%
53%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Kansas
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4%
42%
54%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Colorado
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
5%
54%
41%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Oregon
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
5%
55%
40%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Montana
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
5%
40%
55%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
New Jersey
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
56%
41%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Missouri
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
41%
56%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Mississippi
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2%
41%
57%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Illinois
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4%
56%
40%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Delaware
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
57%
40%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Indiana
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
40%
57%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Washington
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
5%
56%
39%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Connecticut
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
58%
39%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Louisiana
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
39%
58%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Rhode Island
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4%
58%
38%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Nebraska
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4%
38%
58%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Utah
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
40%
57%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
South Carolina
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4%
39%
57%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Mississippi
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
38%
59%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Tennessee
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
38%
59%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
New York
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
60%
37%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Alabama
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2%
37%
61%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Kentucky
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
36%
61%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
South Dakota
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4%
35%
61%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Arkansas
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
35%
62%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
California
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4%
62%
34%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Hawaii
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
63%
34%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Maryland
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4%
64%
32%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Idaho
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
6%
31%
63%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Massachusetts
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
65%
32%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Oklahoma
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
32%
65%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
North Dakota
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4%
31%
65%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Vermont
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
5%
65%
30%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
West Virginia
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4%
29%
67%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
Wyoming
Safe R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
5%
26%
69%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point
District of Columbia
Safe D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3%
91%
6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Error margin: ± 1 percentage point