2024 Presidential Election Projection by Theo

290.9
247.1
3 in 4
Harris Win Probability
1 in 4
Trump Win Probability
Tie Probability: 9 in 1000

Projected Popular Vote

50.0%
46.9%
3.1%

Win Probability

Popular Vote

Electoral Vote

Arizona
TOSSUP
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)5 in 10
Donald Trump (R)5 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.86%
48.568%
48.572%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Georgia
TILT D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)5 in 10
Donald Trump (R)5 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.45%
48.86%
48.69%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
North Carolina
TILT R
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)5 in 10
Donald Trump (R)5 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3.13%
48.21%
48.67%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Wisconsin
LEAN D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)6 in 10
Donald Trump (R)4 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3.22%
48.81%
47.97%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Pennsylvania
LEAN D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)7 in 10
Donald Trump (R)3 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.78%
49.14%
48.07%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Nevada
LEAN D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)7 in 10
Donald Trump (R)3 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4.39%
48.42%
47.19%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Michigan
LEAN D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)8 in 10
Donald Trump (R)2 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.76%
49.81%
47.43%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Texas
LIKELY R
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)1 in 10
Donald Trump (R)9 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3.34%
46.11%
50.55%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Florida
LIKELY R
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)0 in 10
Donald Trump (R)10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
1.91%
46.44%
51.65%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Alaska
LIKELY R
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)0 in 10
Donald Trump (R)10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
5.34%
43.91%
50.75%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Minnesota
SAFE D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)10 in 10
Donald Trump (R)0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
1.98%
52.56%
45.46%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
New Hampshire
SAFE D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)10 in 10
Donald Trump (R)0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.34%
52.71%
44.95%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Ohio
SAFE R
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)0 in 10
Donald Trump (R)10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3.07%
44.83%
52.10%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Maine
SAFE D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)10 in 10
Donald Trump (R)0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.57%
53.06%
44.37%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Iowa
SAFE R
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)0 in 10
Donald Trump (R)10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3.34%
44.44%
52.16%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
New Mexico
SAFE D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)10 in 10
Donald Trump (R)0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3.46%
53.98%
42.56%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Virginia
SAFE D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)10 in 10
Donald Trump (R)0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4.49%
53.19%
42.33%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
South Carolina
SAFE R
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)0 in 10
Donald Trump (R)10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3.67%
42.41%
53.92%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Kansas
SAFE R
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)0 in 10
Donald Trump (R)10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.72%
41.59%
55.69%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Montana
SAFE R
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)0 in 10
Donald Trump (R)10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3.96%
40.34%
55.69%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
New Jersey
SAFE D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)10 in 10
Donald Trump (R)0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4.57%
55.05%
40.38%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Colorado
SAFE D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)10 in 10
Donald Trump (R)0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4.29%
55.61%
40.10%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Illinois
SAFE D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)10 in 10
Donald Trump (R)0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3.36%
56.76%
39.88%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Indiana
SAFE R
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)0 in 10
Donald Trump (R)10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3.22%
40.06%
56.72%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Mississippi
SAFE R
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)0 in 10
Donald Trump (R)10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.97%
40.06%
56.96%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Missouri
SAFE R
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)0 in 10
Donald Trump (R)10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
5.16%
38.97%
55.87%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Nebraska
SAFE R
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)0 in 10
Donald Trump (R)10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4.38%
38.84%
56.78%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Oregon
SAFE D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)10 in 10
Donald Trump (R)0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.96%
57.30%
39.74%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Rhode Island
SAFE D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)10 in 10
Donald Trump (R)0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.30%
58.08%
39.62%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Connecticut
SAFE D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)10 in 10
Donald Trump (R)0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.96%
58.18%
38.86%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Delaware
SAFE D
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)10 in 10
Donald Trump (R)0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.54%
58.07%
39.39%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Louisiana
SAFE R
CandidateChance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D)0 in 10
Donald Trump (R)10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
5.32%
37.55%
57.12%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Utah
SAFE R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
5.76%
37.04%
57.20%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
New York
SAFE D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.46%
59.66%
37.88%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Washington
SAFE D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4.57%
59.89%
35.53%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Tennessee
SAFE R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.31%
35.80%
61.90%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Kentucky
SAFE R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.66%
34.93%
62.41%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
South Dakota
SAFE R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.49%
35.08%
62.42%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Alabama
SAFE R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.21%
35.36%
62.43%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Hawaii
SAFE D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
5.45%
61.53%
33.02%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Idaho
SAFE R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.93%
33.58%
63.49%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Arkansas
SAFE R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3.09%
33.32%
63.58%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
California
SAFE D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
3.69%
63.35%
32.97%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Maryland
SAFE D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.77%
65.82%
31.41%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Massachusetts
SAFE D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.27%
65.71%
32.02%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Oklahoma
SAFE R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
4.77%
30.63%
64.60%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
North Dakota
SAFE R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.46%
31.28%
66.25%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Vermont
SAFE D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.80%
68.07%
29.14%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
West Virginia
SAFE R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.70%
27.55%
69.75%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
Wyoming
SAFE R
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 0 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 10 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.52%
26.57%
70.91%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point
DC
WIN D
Candidate Chance of Winning
Kamala Harris (D) 10 in 10
Donald Trump (R) 0 in 10
Forecasted Vote Share
2.37%
92.47%
5.16%
0%50%100%
Error margin: ± 0.4 percentage point